Negeri Sembilan Turmoil Unlikely To Derail Umno-BN In Melaka, Analysts Say
Negeri Sembilan’s palace crisis may become campaign ammunition, but analysts say Melaka voters have more immediate concerns.
- The Negeri Sembilan turmoil is unlikely to significantly impact Umno-BN in Melaka, as the two states face different political circumstances.
- Analysts warn PH against relying heavily on the Negeri Sembilan crisis, as voters prioritise more immediate local issues.
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The political turmoil in Negeri Sembilan is unlikely to have a major impact on Umno-BN’s prospects in the upcoming Melaka state election, although the issue could still be used by opponents to question the coalition’s political stability, analysts said.
Universiti Malaya senior lecturer Dr Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub said the Negeri Sembilan crisis could provide ammunition for the opposition to question Umno’s leadership and its position on the institution of the Malay rulers.
He said the revocation of the Negeri Sembilan executive council appointments by the state palace could make the issue difficult for Umno-BN to avoid during the Melaka campaign.
Impact Likely To Vary Across Melaka
However, Tawfik said the impact would not necessarily be uniform across Melaka, as BN could still rely on its machinery and record of administering the state, while voters would also consider their respective candidates and local issues.
He said the issue was likely to have a greater bearing in closely contested constituencies.
“If the turmoil continues without a convincing explanation, it could erode BN’s advantage. But if it subsides, voters’ attention may return to the state government’s performance,” he told TRP.
PH Should Not Rely Too Heavily On Negeri Sembilan Issue
Meanwhile, International Islamic University Malaysia political analyst Prof Dr Syaza Shukri said the Negeri Sembilan issue was unlikely to significantly affect Umno’s prospects in Melaka because the political circumstances in the two states were different.
She said attempts to portray Umno as responsible for destabilising Negeri Sembilan might not translate effectively into the Melaka political context, particularly as Melaka did not face a similar palace-related issue.
“My first thought is that even if they use this to portray Umno as destabilising Negeri Sembilan, I don’t think the effect will be significant in Melaka because Melaka does not have an issue involving the palace.
“If anything, it will be about whether a BN-PN government is stable or not,” she said.
Syaza stressed that it would therefore be a mistake for PH to rely heavily on the Negeri Sembilan crisis as a campaign issue against Umno in Melaka.
“Firstly, people see this as very Negeri Sembilan-centric. Secondly, voters don’t care about this as much as other issues that are more immediate to them.”
READ MORE: Dissolution On Wednesday: It’s Confirmed, Melaka Heading To The Polls
The 28-seat Melaka state legislative assembly is officially dissolved today following months of speculation.
In the the last Melaka state election in 2021, BN won 21 of the 28 state seats to form the state government, while PH won five and Perikatan Nasional (PN) secured two.
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