What BN-PN Must Do In PAS-Led States To Keep The Alliance Intact

Analysts say the alliance’s biggest challenge is not Melaka, but whether PAS and BN can strike seat-sharing deals in PN’s strongest states.

In Brief

The BN-PN alliance's true test lies in PAS-dominated SG4 states, where BN holds minimal seats and seat negotiations will prove far more challenging.
Both coalitions remain united by the shared objective of unseating PH, with leaders confident a win-win seat allocation formula can be achieved.

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The commitment to defeat Pakatan Harapan (PH) and form governments together is expected to remain the cornerstone of the Barisan Nasional (BN)-Perikatan Nasional (PN) alliance, but political observers say the real test of the pact will come in PAS-dominated states.

Although the coalition comfortably wrested control of Negeri Sembilan in Saturday’s state election, analysts believe the durability of the alliance will ultimately be measured in Kelantan, Terengganu, Kedah and Perlis, the so called SG4, where PAS and PN dominate while BN has little electoral presence.

BN currently holds just two state seats in Kelantan and none in the other three states.

Despite this, BN was not alien to Perlis, Kedah and Terengganu, as they were once its traditional strongholds.

However, PAS gradually dismantled BN’s dominance by capturing Terengganu in 1999, Kedah in 2008, and eventually leading Perikatan Nasional to seize Perlis in the 2022 general election.

Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) political analyst Associate Professor Dr Mazlan Ali said the BN-PN electoral pact could remain intact through the upcoming Melaka state election, but questioned whether it could be sustained in PAS strongholds.

“In Johor, Negeri Sembilan and Melaka, compromises are easier because these are not PAS strongholds.

“But will PAS be willing to share seats with BN in its stronghold states, and will BN be satisfied with the number of seats allocated to it?” he was quoted as saying by FMT.

The BN-PN alliance secured a commanding victory in Negeri Sembilan, with BN winning 18 seats and PN taking seven, while PH was reduced to 11 seats after governing the state since 2018.

Despite concerns over future seat negotiations, PN leaders remain confident that the coalition’s shared objective of unseating PH will be enough to keep the partnership together.

When there’s a will, there’s a way. Both Tuan Ibrahim (left) and Wan Ahmad Fayhsal (right) believe BN-PN pact will survive leading to the next general election.

PAS deputy president and PN deputy chairman Datuk Seri Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man said both coalitions remained united by a common political objective.

“Everything can be resolved through mutual understanding and a strong shared commitment. I am confident there will be a mechanism to overcome these issues,” he told TRP via WhatsApp.

However, Tuan Ibrahim stopped short of confirming whether PAS would be willing to allocate seats to BN in states under PN’s control.

Parti Wawasan Negara information chief and Machang MP Wan Ahmad Fayhsal Wan Ahmad Kamal acknowledged that seat negotiations between parties would never be easy, but said all that involved understood the bigger picture.

“Every seat negotiation is difficult because someone will inevitably have to sacrifice. But today we have a much bigger objective, and every leader in BN and PN understands that.

“I believe the wisdom and experience of the leadership from both sides will produce a win-win formula. The same principle will apply in the SG4 states, and we should leave it to the leadership to ensure the bigger goal of winning GE16 is achieved,” he said.

Mohd Zainy (left) and Zaid (right) believes that partners should assess each others strength before making any decision.

Mohd Zainy Mohd Zain, the chief of Umno’s Taman Uda Murni branch in Kota Bharu, Kelantan, also expressed confidence that the cooperation would continue into the next general election.

“Yes, BN is not as strong as PAS and PN in Kelantan and the other PN-led states. But there has to be compromise. We have already proven that our supporters are willing to back one another.

“BN is not asking for many seats. We recognise PAS and PN’s strength. In Kelantan, for example, requesting five seats is neither excessive nor unreasonable,” he told TRP when met recently in Negeri Sembilan.

Meanwhile, PAS member and former Cabinet minister Datuk Zaid Ibrahim said seat allocations should primarily reflect each party’s electoral strength.

“In any negotiation, whether in business or politics, the stronger party usually gets a larger share,” he said.

However, the former Kota Bharu MP cautioned against relying solely on previous election results when determining seat allocations.

“Both sides must assess each other’s strengths based on the current political landscape,” he said, adding that PN currently appeared stronger than BN not only in the four states it governs but also in state like Selangor.

Zaid also said Malay voters were increasingly backing PN because they viewed the coalition as better positioned to safeguard Malay interests.

Leaders from both BN and PN have repeatedly expressed confidence that the “Blue Wave” created by their alliance in Negeri Sembilan can be carried into the Melaka state election, which is widely expected to be the next electoral battleground.

The Melaka state assembly comprised of 28 seats with BN holding 21 seats, followed by PH with five and PN with two seats.

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