Ilham Centre: BN-PN On Course To Secure Stable Majority In Negeri Sembilan
Politics of identity and effective vote transfer between BN and PN have placed the coalition on track to dominate Negeri Sembilan, according to Ilham Centre.
- Ilham Centre projects BN-PN on course to win 22 state seats, securing a stable majority in the Negeri Sembilan election.
- Identity politics, centred on religion and Malay rights, has emerged as the dominant factor driving voter behaviour this election.
- PH faces a double deficit, losing Malay support and failing to fully mobilise Chinese voters due to federal policy dissatisfaction.
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No major ethnic group is expected to throw its full support behind Pakatan Harapan (PH), according to a damning Ilham Centre study that projects the coalition will lose tomorrow’s Negeri Sembilan state election.
In a statement issued today, the think tank projects that the combined Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) alliance is on course to secure 22 state seats, enough to form a stable majority in the Negeri Sembilan state election, while PH is expected to win a minimum of nine seats.
The projection was based on a field study conducted by Ilham Centre’s research panel comprising Executive Director Hisommudin Bakar, Head of Research Associate Professor Dr Mohd Yusri Ibrahim, Head of Operations Mohd Azlan Zainal, and Head of Analytics Mohd Jalaluddin Hashim.
Even PH heavyweight and DAP secretary-general Anthony Loke is not expected to secure an easy victory in his Chennah seat, highlighting the extent of the coalition’s declining support.
“There are five seats that remain too close to call — Chennah, Linggi, Nilai, Repah and Temiang. These constituencies are witnessing highly dynamic contests shaped by demographic factors, local sentiment and the personalities of the candidates,” the statement said.
“If BN succeeds in capturing several of these seats, the BN-PN alliance could surpass the two-thirds majority threshold in the State Legislative Assembly,” the statement reads.
Loke has maintained a perfect winning record in every Negeri Sembilan state election he contested — winning the Lobak seat twice before securing Chennah three consecutive times since 2013.
Anthony Loke is contesting against Negeri Sembilan MCA Youth Chief Siow Kong Choon who is representing BN in the Chennah state seat during the Negeri Sembilan state election.
Meanwhile, the research outfit said identity politics has re-emerged as the most dominant factor influencing voter behaviour, particularly among Malay voters.
It said campaigning this time was no longer centred on governance, development or the state government’s track record, but had shifted towards issues involving religion, Malay rights and Malay political dominance.
“Voters are making their choices based on perceptions of who is better able to defend the interests of religion and the Malay community, rather than on administrative performance or development achievements,” the statement read.
Ilham Centre noted that unlike the 15th General Election and the 2023 state polls, identity politics was no longer driven exclusively by PN, but had evolved into a shared narrative embraced by supporters of both BN and PN.
It said the common messaging made the coalition’s appeal to Malay voters more consistent, accelerating grassroots support consolidation throughout the campaign.
The study found that the desire to preserve Malay-Muslim political dominance became the primary justification among supporters of both parties in backing the BN-PN cooperation.
Solid Malay Support For BN-PN
In contrast, PH was unable to present a counter-narrative capable of matching the emotional appeal of identity politics, with its campaign focused on governance and administrative achievements failing to generate the same resonance.
Ilham Centre also found that the Malay-Muslim political wave created through the BN-PN partnership in Negeri Sembilan was more organised and effective than the cooperation seen during the Johor state election.
According to the study, vote transfers between supporters of both parties took place more smoothly than initially expected, easing concerns that grassroots members would stage silent protests or reject the electoral pact.
In seats contested by BN, about 92 per cent of PN supporters transferred their votes to BN candidates.
Meanwhile, in constituencies contested by PN, around 75 per cent of BN supporters did the same, suggesting that some traditional BN supporters are still adapting to the new political arrangement.
Nevertheless, Ilham Centre said the disparity did not undermine the partnership’s overall objective, as the level of Malay vote consolidation was sufficient to provide the BN-PN alliance with a significant electoral advantage.
The study estimated that PH would secure only about 18 per cent of the Malay vote, highlighting a substantial deficit in support from the community.
PH Traditional Supporters Staying Away
Separately, Ilham Centre also observed a shift in Chinese voter sentiment towards PH.
While most Chinese voters are still expected to support PH, the research body said the backing is no longer automatic, but is instead driven by pragmatism due to the absence of a credible political alternative.
It said dissatisfaction over several federal policies, including taxation, subsidy rationalisation, e-invoicing, business enforcement measures and the perception of slow institutional reforms, has begun influencing Chinese voter sentiment.
“As a result, PH is not only facing a significant deficit in Malay support, but is also struggling to sustain maximum mobilisation among its own core supporters.”
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