Outside PKR, Survival Isn’t Guaranteed – Analyst Warns Rafizi’s Bersama

Analysts warn Bersama could split reformist votes, but question whether it can match PKR’s ground machinery.

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While former PKR heavyweights Datuk Seri Rafizi Ramli and Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad are still seen as capable of defending their respective parliamentary seats in Pandan and Setiawangsa, the political outlook appears more uncertain for other PKR MPs who may align themselves with their new party, Bersama.

Pacific Research Centre of Malaysia principal adviser Dr Oh Ei Sun said the individual political appeal of MPs will play a key role in determining whether they can survive outside PKR’s electoral machinery, suggesting that those who defect may struggle to retain their seats.

“Well, I think they (Rafizi and Nik Nazmi) may be able to retain their seats next round, but I am not sure about the electoral prospects of their other new party comrades, if MUDA is any lesson,” he told TRP in a WhatsApp reply.

He added that a wider wave of defections from PKR to Bersama could ultimately benefit the opposition by splitting the reformist vote.

“They are likely to split PH’s erstwhile reformist votes, such that PN (specifically PAS) may have higher electoral prospects,” he said.

In previous internal PKR analyses for GE16, the Pandan seat was classified as one of only seven “safe seats” for the party under Tier 1, while Setiawangsa was placed in Tier 2A, considered relatively strong but not unassailable.

Oh’s assessment is notable as several other PKR MPs linked to these “safe” seats include Subang MP Wong Chen, Ampang MP Rodziah Ismail, and Petaling Jaya MP Lee Chean Chung, all of whom also attended Rafizi and Nik Nazmi’s announcement event in Petaling Jaya on Sunday (17 May).

Wangsa Maju MP Zahir Hassan and Balik Pulau MP Datuk Bakhtiar Wan Chik were also present.

Oh’s comments suggest that PKR’s strongholds are not solely dependent on individual candidates, but also on other key factors such as urban voter alignment with Pakatan Harapan (PH), party machinery strength, and coalition branding.

Meanwhile, Asia Group Advisors associate director Kamles Kumar echoed similar views, pointing out that Bersama is likely to target the same urban, semi-urban, and reform-minded voter base that has traditionally supported PH, DAP, and PKR.

This, he said, makes the challenge more direct for PKR, as Rafizi is not an external critic but a former key architect of the party’s electoral strategy.

However, questions remain over Bersama’s organisational strength.

“Rafizi was instrumental in GE14 through candidate selection, data-driven campaigning and mobilisation, but building a nationwide party structure is harder than running a campaign.

If he can convert his experience into ground machinery, his party could become a serious spoiler in PH-held urban and semi-urban seats,” Kamles said.

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