Analyst: Rafizi More Likely Than Hamzah To Shake Malaysia’s Political Landscape

Ilham Centre executive director Hisommudin Bakar says Rafizi Ramli’s emerging political direction could pose a greater challenge to existing coalitions compared to Hamzah Zainudin, particularly among urban and reform-minded voters.

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Between the emerging political vehicles linked to former Economy Minister Datuk Seri Rafizi Ramli and Opposition Leader Datuk Seri Hamzah Zainudin, analysts believe Rafizi’s initiative is more likely to make an impact on Malaysia’s current political landscape.

This, according to Ilham Centre executive director Hisommudin Bakar, is especially evident among urban voters and within Pakatan Harapan’s core support base.

Hisommudin said both political figures are believed to be seriously considering the formation of new political vehicles, although they are expected to pursue different directions.

He cautioned that forming a new Malay-based political entity outside established coalitions carries significant risks, particularly given voter psychology in rural constituencies.

He pointed to past examples such as Parti Pejuang Tanah Air (Pejuang), which was formed by former prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad but failed to secure electoral breakthroughs despite high-profile leadership.

“In Malay-majority politics, new parties often face scepticism. Unless they are aligned with a larger coalition, they struggle to survive electorally,” he said when contacted by TRP.

In contrast, Hisommudin said Rafizi presents a different kind of political challenge to the government, particularly due to his influence among urban voters and digital-savvy demographics.

He noted that Rafizi’s political communication style—especially through podcasts and public policy commentary—has already gained traction in urban public discourse, particularly among younger voters.

“In urban areas, his messaging is widely discussed. Even without a party structure, his ideas are already circulating in the public domain,” he said.

However, he stressed that Rafizi’s real political impact would only materialise if he successfully establishes a formal party structure capable of contesting elections independently.

“If he has a party and maintains consistency over the next one to two years leading into the general election, he has the potential to disrupt the current urban vote distribution.”

Hisommudin added that Rafizi’s influence could pose a greater challenge to Pakatan Harapan’s two key components; PKR and DAP.

He said Rafizi’s appeal may not necessarily translate into electoral victories, but could significantly weaken voter confidence in existing coalition parties.

“At this stage, it may not be about winning seats. It is more about affecting trust and confidence among hardcore supporters.”

He added that dissatisfaction among certain voter segments—particularly in urban Chinese-majority constituencies—could lead to lower turnout rates, which historically has had significant electoral consequences.

He referred to the 17th Sabah state election, where PH suffered a near-complete electoral collapse in the state.

“This disengagement itself is a political message. It reflects declining confidence in reform narratives,” he said.

TRP had previously reported on the possibility of Rafizi and Hamzah unveiling their respective new political directions in the near future.

READ MORE: Will Rafizi Actually Form His Own Party?

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