Analysts: No Guarantee BN Will Storm Back Into Putrajaya With A Majority Govt After GE15
Political analysts believe that separate state polls after GE15 are looking increasingly likely with the current situation but doubt that the situation would favour any coalition more than the other.
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No state has yet to dissolve its respective legislative assembly despite the announcement of the dissolution of the 14th Parliament of Malaysia last Monday.
As it stands, only Barisan Nasional’s (BN) Perak Menteri Besar Datuk Seri Saarani Mohammad had sought an audience with the state ruler, Sultan Nazrin Muizzuddin Shah, to seek consent for the dissolution of the Perak legislative state assembly.
However, Sultan Nazrin has yet to decide whether to approve or deny the request.
And the other BN’s menteri besar in Perlis and Pahang has yet to hold an audience with their respective state ruler on the matter.
On the other hand, Pakatan Harapan had announced that the state governments of Selangor, Negeri Sembilan and Penang, under their administration, would not be dissolved simultaneously together with Parliament.
PAS, which is part of the Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition too has reiterated that the party decided against dissolving the legislative assembly in their controlled state – Kelantan, Terengganu and Kedah.
This was announced by PAS President Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang in a statement today.
Political analyst Professor Dr Mohd Azizuddin Mohd Sani said that a separate state poll after a general election would be unprecedented.
“It would be hard to predict which sides will be benefited by this situation as it has never happened before in our history because usually the sultans, as the respective head of states, would usually agree to dissolve the state legislative assemblies together with the Parliament,” Azizuddin told TRP when contacted today.
The senior lecturer in Politics and International Relations at Universiti Utara Malaysia, added that PH would perhaps delay the timing of the state election in their controlled states to give them an edge over BN.
Meanwhile, another analyst, Prof Dr Ahmad Fauzi Abdul Hamid from Universiti Sains Malaysia said that while BN had been pushing for a snap election in its bid to regain a two-thirds majority in Dewan Rakyat, the reality however indicates that there will be no single coalition that can form a government on its own.
“This might be new to Malaysia but in western countries, it is normal for the federal government to be formed by multiple alliances that worked and collaborated with each other.”
He also pointed out that no Federal Government has enjoyed a two-thirds majority in Malaysia since the GE12.
“Ever since 2008, BN’s support has been dwindling and they did not have a two-thirds majority since that election.
“UMNO and BN must face the truth that they will face a strong challenge in any election as the competition has become fiercer (than before) due to the fact that our democracy has become more mature.”
In announcing the dissolution of the 14th Parliament of Malaysia on Monday, caretaker Prime Minister Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob advised all state chiefs to dissolve their respective state legislative assembly together with the Parliament.
This, said Ismail, to not burden the rakyat to vote twice as well as to help the government save from forking out extra costs to hold separate elections.
Prior to Ismail’s announcement, UMNO and BN has been pushing hard for a snap poll to be held this year following the coalition, and its partner Gabungan Parti Sarawak’s (GPS) convincing victory in the Sarawak, Sabah, Melaka and Johor state poll previously.
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