It’s not looking good.
We might be looking at around 8,000 Covid-19 cases daily around March if the basic reproduction number (R-naught or R0) increases to 1.2, warned the Health Ministry’s Director General Tan Sri Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah.
He posted two photos on Twitter, two different Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) models which predict the number of cases in Malaysia if the R-naught is at 1.1 or 1.2.
Based on a MOH press conference on 6 January, Malaysia’s current R-naught is at 1.1.
SEIR models are used to provide information on the potential spread of a disease in a community.
Perhatian kepada kes harian Covid-19 dan jangkaan unjuran kes dari 4 Januari sehingga 31 Mei 2021 dengan kadar kebolehjangkitan Ro/Rt pada 1.1 dan 1.2 di Malaysia. pic.twitter.com/JTqRj8lXpM— Noor Hisham Abdullah (@DGHisham) January 7, 2021
If the r-naught is 1.1, the graph shows that we will hit 5,000 cases daily by the second week of April and it go even higher – up to 8,000 by the fourth week of May.
The second graphs shows the second scenario – where the r-naught is 1.2 – daily cases will reach 5,000 by February and by March, we might be looking at 8,000 Covid-19 cases daily.
Malaysia reached the 3,000 mark yesterday, after recording 3,021 daily cases. As of 7 January, the country has recorded 102,723 cases in total.
Unkempt in both stories and appearance, Hakim loves tech but tech left him on read, previously he used to write about tall buildings and unoccupied spaces that he can't afford, and legend has it that he still can't afford it to this day