8,000 Daily Covid-19 Cases By March If Malaysia’s R-Naught Increases To 1.2, Warns MOH

It’s not looking good.

Subscribe to our Telegram channel for the latest stories and updates.

We might be looking at around 8,000 Covid-19 cases daily around March if the basic reproduction number (R-naught or R0) increases to 1.2, warned the Health Ministry’s Director General Tan Sri Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah.

He posted two photos on Twitter, two different Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) models which predict the number of cases in Malaysia if the R-naught is at 1.1 or 1.2.

Based on a MOH press conference on 6 January, Malaysia’s current R-naught is at 1.1.

SEIR models are used to provide information on the potential spread of a disease in a community.

Perhatian kepada kes harian Covid-19 dan jangkaan unjuran kes dari 4 Januari sehingga 31 Mei 2021 dengan kadar kebolehjangkitan Ro/Rt pada 1.1 dan 1.2 di Malaysia. pic.twitter.com/JTqRj8lXpM
— Noor Hisham Abdullah (@DGHisham) January 7, 2021

If the r-naught is 1.1, the graph shows that we will hit 5,000 cases daily by the second week of April and it go even higher – up to 8,000 by the fourth week of May.

The second graphs shows the second scenario – where the r-naught is 1.2 – daily cases will reach 5,000 by February and by March, we might be looking at 8,000 Covid-19 cases daily.

Malaysia reached the 3,000 mark yesterday, after recording 3,021 daily cases. As of 7 January, the country has recorded 102,723 cases in total.

Share your thoughts with us via TRP’s Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram.