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8,000 Daily Covid-19 Cases By March If Malaysia’s R-Naught Increases To 1.2, Warns MOH

8,000 Daily Covid-19 Cases By March If Malaysia’s R-Naught Increases To 1.2, Warns MOH

It’s not looking good.

Hakim Hassan

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We might be looking at around 8,000 Covid-19 cases daily around March if the basic reproduction number (R-naught or R0) increases to 1.2, warned the Health Ministry’s Director General Tan Sri Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah.

He posted two photos on Twitter, two different Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) models which predict the number of cases in Malaysia if the R-naught is at 1.1 or 1.2.

Based on a MOH press conference on 6 January, Malaysia’s current R-naught is at 1.1.

SEIR models are used to provide information on the potential spread of a disease in a community.

READ MORE: “We’ve Successfully Managed To Reduce R0 Value From 2.2 To 0.95” Says Health D-G. Here’s What That Means

If the r-naught is 1.1, the graph shows that we will hit 5,000 cases daily by the second week of April and it go even higher – up to 8,000 by the fourth week of May.

The second graphs shows the second scenario – where the r-naught is 1.2 – daily cases will reach 5,000 by February and by March, we might be looking at 8,000 Covid-19 cases daily.

Malaysia reached the 3,000 mark yesterday, after recording 3,021 daily cases. As of 7 January, the country has recorded 102,723 cases in total.

READ MORE: Covid-19: New Daily Cases Reach New High Of 3,021 Today (Jan 7, 2021), The Second Day In A Row


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